Will the MUA’s anti-Carnival campaign cut $1 bn from Australia’s cruise earnings?

• The MUA embroiled the state government in its campaign about working conditions aboard Carnival ship.
• Unions officials and safety officers attempted to board Carnival Adventure for an inspection.
• The timing couldn’t be worse as US cruise lines consider stepping up winter sailings.

This week saw a confrontation outside Carnival Adventure, when officials from the Maritime Union Australia arrived unnanounced with inspectors from SafeWork NSW and demanded to board the ship.

Of course, there was video and social media. It was a stunt aimed at gaining the widest possible audience.

Carnival Australia said: “They have no authority to board our ship, bully our crew or violate security protocols that create risks for our guests.”

But the damage was done as the confrontation was spread across the world by trade news websites and newsletters.

In Miami, home of the cruise industry, operators have been running the numbers on Australia for some time. Ageing fleets and burgeoning ship numbers mean there is an opportunity for the right destinations. Now the Middle East has provided even more impetus.

Sydney and Brisbane’s cruise ports are both trying to get more ships to sail in the winter and grow Australia’s cruise industry. Last week, Cruise Passenger revealed exclusively that NSW Ports was offering special prices for the shoulder and winter seasons.

Now there are worries that these latest events could be poorly timed, arriving at a moment when the industry finally had some momentum.

The biggest concern – Cruise Passenger’s ground-breaking surveys of capacity, which first revealed our losses of over 30% of capacity despite Australia, now show stagnation after we went backwards by $1 bn last year.

Today we predict Australia could lose another $1bn, bringing our cruise tourism earnings down from $8bn three years ago to $6bn. This would be a terrible blow given the huge appetite for cruise and the fact that Australians are now heading overseas for their favourite holiday – giving other countries the benefit of a burgeoning tourism industry.

Our local cruise ships already support 22,000 jobs. There could be losses here too.

Business Sydney’s Paul Nicolau says the union actions could undermine “years of work” to build Sydney’s image a cruising destination.

“The NSW Government needs to explain why the Maritime Union of Australia and SafeWork NSW appeared to be working in collaboration to demand going on board Carnival Cruise Line’s Carnival Adventure at the Overseas Passenger Terminal. The negative impression conveyed could undermine years of work to build the economic contribution of cruising to Sydney, NSW and the nation. An explanation is needed. 

“The cruise company has for many years home ported its ships in Sydney and, in turn, supported numerous local suppliers. The Maritime Union of Australia (MUA) is currently waging a campaign against the company as the Commonwealth reviews coastal shipping arrangements. 

“The highly respected Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) is the government authority with oversight of the cruise industry and it should be left to them to do their job.”

Last week Cruise Passenger revealed that NSW ports will begin offering price incentives for off-season cruising, a sign that the government may finally be looking to remove some of the regulatory barriers that exist towards cruise in Australia. Furthermore, rumours are strengthening that Royal Caribbean could sail year-round in Australia as soon as 2028, when their private destination at Lelepa is built and ready.

This progress is sorely needed as over the last few years, Australia’s cruise industry has taken a battering, and is now stuck in stagnation, with few growth opportunities on the horizon and billions of dollars being lost.

Australia is losing cruise ships

Over recent years, the Australian cruise industry has seen a large range of cruise lines reduce their local fleets, or even pull out from the country entirely. This was felt yet again last week when it was announced that Carnival Adventure would begin sailing half the year in America, instead of continuing to sail year-round in Australia.

Carnival didn’t hold back in pointing the finger at regulatory conditions in Australia, saying it had to make the deployment decision “given more favourable market conditions elsewhere and the uncertain regulatory environment in Australia and New Zealand”.

While each cruise line and ship has its own circumstances, the trend of ships leaving makes it hard to ignore the underlying cause.

Since the 2023/24 season Australia has seen Cunard Cruises, Virgin Voyages and Disney Cruise Line completely drop out from Australian cruising. We’ve also seen Royal Caribbean, Carnival Cruises and Princess Cruises drop one ship from their Australian deployment. 

Meanwhile, Celebrity Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Line and Holland America have remained solid, deploying one ship each summer throughout this period. 

Counting by total capacity of large homeported ships, from the 2023/24 season to the 2025/26 season, Australia’s cruise capacity plummeted a massive 33%. Since then it has mostly stabilized, but certainly not grown in any meaningful way. If we count from the 2023/24 season to the 2027/28 season, we can see a 31% overall decline. Since the 2025/26 season, there’s been a modest 2.5% growth. 

The data shows that after a significant exodus of ships, the industry has now stabilised, but it’s also stagnated

Some of the ships here for the 2027/28 season only have short seasons, such as Sapphire Princess and Norwegian Spirit. Furthermore, In the 2023/24 season Australia had four ships sailing year round across Carnival and P&O, now it has just two. 

These losses are not only felt on paper.  In the 2023/24 season, the industry had hit an all-time high of $8.43 billion in total economic output, which dropped to $7.32 billion in the 2024/25 season. This represents a 13% drop, and more than $1 billion in lost economic output.

Given that the 17% drop in big ship capacity from the 2023/24 to 2024/25 season coincided in a 13% drop in overall economic output from the industry, (17% adjusted for inflation), another loss can be expected over the current 2025/26 season, where big ship capacity has contracted another 19%.

An estimate would expect that the 2025/26 season rakes in about $6.25 billion, leaving the industry 26% smaller, and meaning losses of around $2.2 billion in three years.

Check out the full list of large homeported ships in Australia since the 2023/24 seasons.

	23/24	24/25	25/26	26/27	27/28
Royal Caribbean	Brilliance of the Seas (2543), Ovation of the Seas (4905), Quantum of the Seas (4905)	Ovation of the Seas (4905), Quantum of the Seas (4905)	Anthem of the Seas (4905), Voyager of the Seas (3602)	Anthem of the Seas (4905), Quantum of the Seas (4905)	Anthem of the Seas (4905)Voyager of the Seas (3602)
Carnival Cruises + P&O Cruises	Carnival Splendor (3012), Carnival Luminosa (2826), Pacific Adventure (2636), Pacific Explorer (2000), Pacific Encounter (2600)	Carnival Splendor (3012), Carnival Luminosa (2826), Pacific Adventure (2636), Pacific Explorer (2000), Pacific Encounter (2600)	Carnival Splendor (3012), Carnival Luminosa (2826), Carnival Encounter (2600), Carnival Adventure (2636)	Carnival Splendor (3012), Carnival Luminosa (2826), Carnival Encounter (2600), Carnival Adventure (2636)	Carnival Splendor (3012), Carnival Luminosa (2826), Carnival Encounter (2600), Carnival Adventure (2636)
Celebrity Cruises	Celebrity Edge (2908)	Celebrity Edge (2908)	Celebrity Edge (2908)	Celebrity Edge (2908)	Celebrity Edge (2908)
Princess Cruises	Majestic Princess (3560), Royal Princess (3600), Grand Princess (2610), Coral Princess (2000)	Royal Princess: 3600 Diamond Princess: 2670 Crown Princess: 2000	Discovery Princess: 3600 Crown Princess: 2000	Grand Princess (2610) Royal Princess (3600)	Grand Princess (2610) Royal Princess (3600) Sapphire Princess (2670) (only Oct to Jan)
Norwegian Cruise Lines	Norwegian Spirit (2002)	Norwegian Spirit (2002)	Norwegian Spirit (2002)	Norwegian Spirit (2002)	Norwegian Spirit (2002)
Cunard Cruise Line	Queen Elizabeth II (2081)	Queen Elizabeth II (2081)	No ship	No ship	No ship
Disney Cruise Lines	Disney Wonder (2400)	Disney Wonder (2400)	Disney Wonder (2400)	No ship	No ship
Holland America	Westerdam (1964)	Westerdam (1964)	Noordam (1972)	Noordam (1972)	Westerdam (1964)
Virgin Voyages	Resilient Lady (2770)	No ship	No ship	No ship	No ship
Total:	18 ships Total capacity: 51322	15 shipsTotal capacity: 42509	12 shipsTotal capacity: 34463	11 shipsTotal capacity: 33976	12 shipsTotal capacity: 35343

What comes next?

Many industry voices, such as Cruise Passenger, have been tirelessly calling for a national cruise summit that works to put together a national cruise strategy. The Australian Cruise Association has recently joined these calls, officially putting in their executive strategy a call for funding for a national cruise strategy, worked on both by both government and industry.

Cruise Passenger has attempted on multiple occasions to get a comment from Tourism Minister Don Farrell on the situation, and haven’t received a response.

For now, the industry remains stagnant, with no plan to recoup the billions lost in economic output.